The Voters Still Out There Lean Republican, a Forecaster Finds - Even as His Own Poll Has Paxton Up Just 1.1 Points
Quantus Insights' look at Texans who habitually vote on Election Day finds a 47-to-27 Republican tilt among the not-yet-voted. Its latest survey, though, is a statistical tie for the Senate.
AUSTIN - Texas Republicans have an encouraging sign heading into Election Day, and it is not a horse-race number. Jason Corley, lead pollster and election forecaster at Quantus Insights, examined the voters who had not yet voted as of an October 29 data pull and who cast their ballots on Election Day in 2022 or 2024 - the habitual Election Day electorate. Among those who voted on Election Day in both cycles, his model classifies 47 percent as Republican and 27.2 percent as Democratic, a gap of 19.8 percentage points in the pool of voters still available to both campaigns, with the Republican advantage especially pronounced in that repeat-Election-Day group, the firm reported Friday.
The caveats are part of the finding, and Quantus states them itself. Texas does not register voters by political party, so the classifications are modeled estimates - not party registration totals, and not a count of votes for either candidate. 'This is not an Election Day projection,' the analysis says. 'It describes who remains and their past voting habits. It does not tell us who will turn out, when they will vote, or which candidate they will support.' A favorable pool is not the same thing as favorable turnout.
The firm's own horse-race numbers underline why. Quantus's October 26-28 survey of 1,221 likely voters puts Republican Ken Paxton at 48.7 percent and Democrat James Talarico at 47.6 in the U.S. Senate race, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 1.4 percent and 2.2 percent undecided - a 1.1-point Paxton lead that falls within the firm's approximately 6.4-point margin of error for the difference between the candidates. The firm's October 9-11 survey had Paxton ahead 47.2 to 46.7, so the small movement does not establish a significant shift. In the governor's race, the same survey puts Gov. Greg Abbott ahead of Gina Hinojosa 50.7 percent to 45.8. Early voting ends Friday; whatever the remaining pool holds, it votes on Tuesday.
