CBS News Poll Projects Democrats to Win 229 House Seats in the Midterms

Democrats are projected to win 229 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, according to a CBS News poll published on Sunday ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. The outlet's House model estimate puts Democrats on course for a majority, with the potential outcome extending into the 230s, while Republicans retain a narrow path to holding the majority. The Democratic lead has remained steady in recent weeks but has not expanded, and CBS News reported there is no growing electoral wave at present.

The CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted among a nationally representative sample of 2,355 U.S. adults on October 21 and 23. The margin of error was 2.6 percentage points for the overall sample, 2.9 points for registered voters and 3 points for likely voters. CBS News characterised the election as an "avoidance" contest, with voters on both sides more motivated by preventing the opposing party from gaining power than by the policies their preferred party would introduce.

Economic concerns remain central. More voters believe gas prices would rise if Republicans win than if Democrats prevail, although few expect prices to fall regardless of which party takes control of Congress, and most voters do not expect to be financially better off under either party. Voters who consider inflation a very important issue, and those who say rising prices have caused financial hardship, tend to support Democrats, and most likely voters believe President Donald Trump's policies are making them financially worse off, the survey found.

The poll also highlighted the president's influence on voting intentions: more than seven in 10 voters supporting Democrats said their congressional vote was intended to oppose Trump, while most Republican supporters said their vote was intended to support him. Neither party is seen by a majority as having a clear plan if it wins control of Congress, and turnout could prove decisive — more Democratic voters said they were certain to vote or had already voted early, while voters who said they would "probably" or "maybe" vote tended to be more Republican. The CBS News House model combines survey findings with past voting patterns, district-level characteristics, demographics and historical trends, and the outlet cautioned the projections are subject to statistical error.