Texas Poll Shows Every Statewide Race Tight as Talarico Leads Paxton 51-47
A new Texas Public Opinion Research poll puts every statewide race from governor to railroad commissioner within a few points in the final week of early voting, with Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 51 to 47 in the U.S. Senate race.
Texas voters are not just deciding a close U.S. Senate race this fall. A new Texas Public Opinion Research poll, released October 23 and reported by USA TODAY on Monday, found every statewide contest on the ballot — from governor to railroad commissioner — within a few points as early voting runs through Friday, October 30, ahead of Election Day on November 3.
At the top of the ticket, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 51 percent to 47 percent in the Senate race, and Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa 51 percent to 48 percent in the governor's race. The poll surveyed 969 likely Texas voters from October 15 to 18 and carries a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points, which puts each of those leads inside or at the edge of the survey's error range.
The down-ballot picture is just as tight. Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick leads Vikki Goodwin 50 to 47; Mayes Middleton leads Nathan Johnson 50 to 48 for attorney general; Don Huffines leads Sarah Eckhardt 50 to 48 for comptroller; Nate Sheets leads Clayton Tucker 50 to 48 for agriculture commissioner; Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham leads Benjamin Flores 49 to 48; and Bo French leads Jon Rosenthal 50 to 48 for railroad commissioner. Republicans also lead the generic ballot for the state's U.S. House and Texas House races by two points, 51 to 49, on both.
What is driving voters, the poll found, is the cost of living. Affordability and cost of living was the first choice of 28 percent of voters asked to rank the top issues officials should prioritize in 2026, down from 32 percent last month, with economic growth and job creation second at 13 percent and Social Security and Medicare and immigration tied for third at 8 percent each. For Harris County, a statewide bellwether where early turnout has already passed 581,000 ballots through Saturday, numbers this close make the final week of early voting the race itself.
