Texas Senate Race Tightens as Talarico and Paxton Crisscross the State in the Final Week
The Texas Senate race remains razor-thin in the final week: James Talarico and Ken Paxton held rival Saturday stops, the latest polls show Talarico narrowly ahead inside the margin of error, and prediction markets gave back ground to Paxton during the first week of early voting.
The contest for the U.S. Senate in Texas remains razor-thin with both campaigns running final-week rallies across the state and a recent poll showing Democrat James Talarico narrowly ahead within the margin of error, according to a final-week report updated Sunday. A CBS News/YouGov poll of likely Texas voters put Talarico at 51 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 49 percent — a two-point gap inside the survey's margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points — and a Marist poll showed a 47-45 Talarico edge, with 6 percent of likely voters still unsure. On the Kalshi prediction market's October 25 update, Talarico's price dropped 2 points to 66 cents while Paxton's rose 2 points to 35 cents during the first week of early voting.
Both candidates were on the road Saturday. Talarico used a San Antonio rally to accuse Paxton of being beholden to billionaires and to call for banning corporate PACs and Super PACs as part of his anti-corruption and affordability agenda. Paxton held a Georgetown stop promoting his 'Protecting the Texas Promise Plan' and highlighting lawsuits he has filed against Pfizer, Netflix and the Biden administration as central to his pitch.
Money is shaping the closing days. September filings reported a roughly $190 million transfer from Elon Musk to the Senate Leadership Fund, making the Republican super PAC the largest spender in the race and driving heavy advertising buys in the final stretch, the report said. Talarico's campaign has made that spending a centerpiece of its closing argument — the same 'Texas is not for sale' frame this station covered at his Austin rally on Friday.
Turnout is likely to settle it. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. In the CBS News/YouGov survey — conducted October 8-16 among 1,492 registered Texas voters — 87 percent of Democrats said they will definitely vote, compared with 77 percent of independents and 76 percent of Republicans, and cost of living was the top issue, named by 56 percent of likely voters. Early voting in Texas runs through Friday, October 30, and Harris County's in-person total has already passed 500,000, as this station reported Saturday. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
