UT Poll Finds Every Texas Statewide Race Within the Margin of Error

Every major Texas statewide race sits inside the margin of error in a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll released October 13, the Texas Gazette reported. The survey of 1,200 registered voters, fielded September 25 through October 5, drew its head-to-head results from 861 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.34 percentage points. Pollsters Jim Henson and Joshua Blank wrote that the results point to "a historically close election" and credited much of the Democratic showing to an enthusiasm gap favoring Democratic voters.

In the U.S. Senate race for the seat now held by John Cornyn, whom Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated in the May Republican runoff, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads Paxton 50% to 47%. Gov. Greg Abbott, seeking a record fourth term, trails Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa 49% to 48% — a one-point gap the pollsters call statistically insignificant. Down the ballot, Democrat Vikki Goodwin leads Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick 49% to 46% for lieutenant governor, Democrat Nathan Johnson leads Republican Mayes Middleton 48% to 47% for attorney general, and Republican Don Huffines leads Democrat Sarah Eckhardt 47% to 46% for comptroller.

The same poll shows Republicans ahead on the generic ballot: a generic Republican congressional candidate leads a generic Democrat 47% to 42% among registered voters, shrinking to 48% to 47% among likely voters. On enthusiasm, 72% of Democrats said they are "extremely" or "very" enthusiastic about voting in November, compared with 62% of Republicans, and Democrats were more likely than Republicans to plan to vote early, 63% to 48%, while Republicans were more likely to plan to vote on Election Day, 40% to 25%.

Two other polls released the same week put Abbott ahead. A Marist Poll released October 14, conducted October 8 through 11, found Abbott leading Hinojosa 49% to 45% among likely voters, with Talarico ahead of Paxton 47% to 45%, and 70% of likely voters saying they expect Abbott to win. A ReconMR poll released October 13, reported by the USA TODAY Network, showed Abbott ahead of Hinojosa 48% to 47% among 617 likely voters. Rice University political scientist Mark Jones told CBS Austin that Abbott's campaign is in the stronger position but described the lead as small, and estimated that 60% to 75% of all Texas ballots will be cast during early voting. Early voting runs October 19 through October 30, and Election Day is November 3.