Texas Senate Race Enters the Final Week a Toss-Up: a Bush Backs Talarico as Trump and Vance Head for Texas
Polling averages put James Talarico about two points ahead of Ken Paxton, prediction markets price Talarico at 65 percent, Neil Bush says he voted for the Democrat, and Republicans are answering with more than $200 million in outside spending and a Trump-Vance closing swing through Corpus Christi, Lubbock and Weatherford.
The Texas Senate race entered the final week of early voting as a genuine toss-up, and Monday brought the clearest signs yet of how both parties see it. Polling averages put Democrat James Talarico roughly two points ahead of Republican Ken Paxton, and Kalshi's market coverage put Talarico's implied chance of winning at 65 percent, up from 60 percent earlier in October. President Donald Trump makes his fourth Texas trip of the cycle on Tuesday, rallying in Corpus Christi at 2 p.m. and Lubbock at 6 p.m., and Vice President JD Vance follows in Weatherford on Thursday, USA TODAY reported.
The weekend produced the race's most unusual endorsement. Neil Bush, brother of former President George W. Bush, said in a Facebook post that he voted for Talarico, citing concern about Paxton's record, including his challenge to the 2020 election results, and writing that "character matters more than party affiliation." Kalshi's report framed the math it speaks to, citing CBS's Ed O'Keefe: a one-to-two point margin in Texas can mean 100,000 to 150,000 votes, and Talarico likely needs a meaningful number of Republicans to cross over or skip the race.
The money says the same thing as the polling. Republicans have spent more than $200 million on Paxton's behalf, much of it in negative ads, CBS News Texas reported, while Talarico holds a large direct fundraising edge, $68.6 million raised to Paxton's $19.5 million in FEC figures. On the trail, Paxton told a standing-room crowd in Georgetown that Talarico is the most radical Democrat ever to run statewide, KSAT reported, and pitched a $25,000 deduction for out-of-pocket medical costs, according to KVUE. Talarico answers Trump on the same turf Tuesday night, with a 7 p.m. rally in Lubbock after stops in Midland and Amarillo.
Underneath the rallies, the early vote is reshaping the electorate both men are chasing. More than 40 percent of early voters who skipped 2024 are Hispanic, roughly double their share among those who did vote, according to VoteHub data analyzed by its head of data science, Zachary Donnini, who called Hidalgo County — running ahead of its 2024 presidential pace — a microcosm of strong Hispanic turnout across Texas. Tarrant County may be the clearest test: VoteHub estimates Talarico needs to carry it by about six points to win statewide. Republicans answer that their voters come late: Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick told ABC13 that Democrats will "start running out of voters mid-week," with 600,000 high-propensity Republicans yet to vote — in a state Trump carried by 14 points in 2024.
