Consumer Confidence Jumps to 91.7 in October, Beating Forecasts a Week Before the Midterms
The Conference Board's index rose 7.5 points in October, back to its June level, as Americans rated business conditions and the job market better. The same survey says confidence is still trending down over the long run - and shoppers still plan to spend less.
Consumer confidence rose sharply in October, the Conference Board reported Tuesday, one week before the midterm elections. Its Consumer Confidence Index climbed 7.5 points to 91.7, up from a slightly upwardly revised 84.2 in September and back to its June level - well above the 81 that economists polled by Reuters had expected. The White House highlighted the report the same day.
Both halves of the survey improved. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor-market conditions, rose 8.6 points to 120.4. The Expectations Index, which tracks the short-term outlook for income, business and jobs, recovered 6.9 points to 72.6 - though that only partially reversed three consecutive monthly declines. The share of consumers calling business conditions "good" rose to 21.4 percent from 18.8 percent, while those calling them "bad" fell to 17.8 percent from 20.0 percent. The share saying jobs were "plentiful" rose to 26.7 percent from 24.3 percent, while 21.4 percent said jobs were "hard to get," unchanged from September.
"Consumer confidence advanced in October, driven primarily by improved perceptions of current and expected business conditions," said Fergus McCormick, senior economist for global indicators at The Conference Board. "The recovery was in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to October." The Board attached its cautions in the same release: confidence remains on a long-term downward trend, consumers planned less spending on services and durable goods over the next six months, and written responses still showed frustration with the cost of food, groceries and fuel. The survey, conducted online for the Board by Toluna from October 1 to 21, also follows a September reading that the Associated Press noted was the lowest in the survey since April 2014 - a reminder, a week out from November 3, of how quickly the economic mood voters carry into an election can swing.
