Emerson Poll: Talarico 48, Paxton 46 in a Senate Toss-Up, and Abbott Leads Hinojosa 49-45 for Governor
The Emerson College/Nexstar survey of 1,000 likely Texas voters (Oct. 17-19, +/-3.1 points) has the Senate race inside the margin and the governor's race just outside it - with the economy, at 39 percent, the issue towering over every other.
A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey finds 48 percent of Texas voters support Democrat James Talarico for U.S. Senate, 46 percent support Republican Ken Paxton, 1 percent support Libertarian Ted Brown, and 5 percent are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Talarico's support increases to 49 percent, Paxton's to 48 percent, and Brown's to 3 percent. The survey of 1,000 likely Texas voters was conducted October 17-19 and carries a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points - which puts the Senate race inside the margin.
"Since August, Talarico's support has slowly inched up by about a point each month, from 46 percent to 48 percent, while Paxton has hovered between 46 percent and 47 percent," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. "If support for the Libertarian candidate, who is at 3 percent on the final ballot, melts between now and Election Day, Paxton will likely see his vote share increase, as these third-party voters are primarily independents or Republicans. If it holds, Talarico benefits."
In the race for governor, 49 percent support incumbent Republican Greg Abbott, 45 percent support Democrat Gina Hinojosa, and 1 percent support Libertarian Pat Dixon, with 4 percent undecided - a four-point lead that lands just outside the poll's margin of error. With leaners accounted for, Abbott stands at 51 percent, Hinojosa at 47 percent and Dixon at 2 percent. Of those surveyed, 46 percent approved of the job Abbott is doing as governor, 48 percent disapproved, and 6 percent had no opinion. The economy remains the top issue for a plurality of Texas voters at 39 percent, up three points from September, followed by immigration at 16 percent, threats to democracy at 13 percent, education at 12 percent and healthcare at 9 percent. Voters whose top issue is the economy split almost evenly between the Senate candidates: 47 percent for Paxton, 46 percent for Talarico.
