Texas Governor Poll: Abbott 50, Hinojosa 47 in Texas Southern's Survey - a Three-Point Lead Inside the Margin of Error

HOUSTON - Gov. Greg Abbott's lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the Texas governor's race has narrowed to three points in a new poll from Texas Southern University - 50 percent to 47 percent, with 1 percent unsure - a margin inside the survey's error band, FOX 26 Houston reported Thursday. The poll, conducted by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at TSU, surveyed 2,000 likely Texas voters from October 21 to 25, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.19 points.

The sample leaned Republican - 40 percent of respondents identified as Republicans, 31 percent as Democrats, 24 percent as independents, 4 percent with another party and 1 percent unsure - which makes the closeness cut both ways: Abbott leads in a survey that oversamples his party, and Hinojosa is three points back in one. Favorability mirrors the head-to-head exactly: 48 percent view Abbott favorably and 45 percent view Hinojosa favorably. Among independents, Hinojosa leads by 11 points.

The demographic splits describe two different electorates arriving at nearly the same total. Most White voters said they support Abbott, while most Latino and Black voters said they back Hinojosa. Most men preferred Abbott and most women supported Hinojosa. Hinojosa leads among younger voters, while Abbott holds a substantial lead with older voters - the group that, in Texas, votes earliest and most reliably, which is one reason a three-point poll lead and a record early vote can both be true at once.

This is the same Houston survey center whose Senate numbers - Talarico 49, Paxton 47 - landed Thursday alongside CNN's wider Talarico lead, and the two TSU races tell one story: in the last big Texas poll taken in Houston, both statewide races sit inside the margin of error with one day of early voting left. Early voting ends Friday; Election Day polls open at 7 a.m. Tuesday.