Talarico at 70 Cents on Both Exchanges, Paxton at 30, as the Polls Keep Texas Close
Prediction traders moved James Talarico to 70 cents on both Polymarket and Kalshi as early voting closed - a new high on Kalshi - while the newest polls still show a Texas Senate race separated by two to six points and the forecasters still call it a toss-up.
The money and the polls are telling two different versions of the same close race. As Texas early voting wrapped up Friday, prediction traders moved Democrat James Talarico to 70 cents on both Polymarket and Kalshi - each board up a point on the day - implying a 70 percent chance of winning the Texas Senate race, while Republican Ken Paxton sat at 31 cents on Polymarket and 30 on Kalshi, the Action Network's October 31 update reported. Kalshi's own newsroom called the 70 percent mark a new high for Talarico, up 10 points in a month, and Paxton's lowest price ever on that contract.
The polls underneath are much tighter. A CNN/SSRS survey of 923 likely voters conducted October 20 to 27 had Talarico ahead 49-43; a Texas Southern University poll of 2,000 likely voters had him ahead 49-47; and the RealClearPolling average for October 8 to 27 sits at 48.6 to 46.5. In the Texas Southern survey, independents did much of the work - Talarico leads Paxton 54 to 38 among them - while Republicans backed Paxton 88 percent to 8, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3 percent statewide. Rice University's Mark Jones, who co-directed that poll, called Talarico the favorite; political science professor Matthew Wilson said Paxton's path runs through Republican voters coming home.
Turnout is the variable both sides are pricing. Harris County had logged more than 953,000 early votes through Thursday, and about 5.9 million Texans voted in person through the first 11 days of early voting - already more than the 5.1 million who voted in person during the entire 2022 early period, according to the figures the Action Network carried from FOX 4. Statewide, early voting closed Friday at 6.9 million ballots. Kalshi's Texas market alone has traded $57.1 million in volume, and its margin forecast - Democrats by 2.7 points - sits much closer to the polls than its 70-cent price does.
The forecasters remain more cautious than the traders: Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball have both rated the race a Toss Up since August, while the exchanges price it as a 70-30 lean. Prices are not votes and polls are not results - the next repricing trigger, as the Action Network put it, is Election Day turnout itself, particularly whether Republican voters come home for Paxton before polls close Tuesday.
