'You Get $5,000': Republicans Knock Doors in South Texas as Polls Tighten for Paxton and Abbott
With polling averages showing James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton and Gina Hinojosa within three points of Gov. Greg Abbott, Republican canvassers are walking the Rio Grande Valley with leaflets and a presidential promise - and worrying out loud about holding a state their party has run since the 1990s.
PENITAS, Texas - The pitch fits on one line. 'If we keep the Congress, what do we get?' Hidalgo County Republican precinct chair Art Echavarria asked a voter on her porch in this Rio Grande border town, in USA TODAY's reporting from South Texas. 'You get $5,000' - President Donald Trump's promise if Republicans hold the House and the Senate. Echavarria, who had knocked more than three dozen doors that morning, called it his 'carrot.'
The urgency behind the door-knocking is in the numbers. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since the 1990s, but a FiftyPlusOne polling average cited by USA TODAY has Democratic state Sen. James Talarico leading Attorney General Ken Paxton 49.2 percent to 46.5 percent in the Senate race, and Gov. Greg Abbott leading state Rep. Gina Hinojosa just 49.5 percent to 46.8 percent. Joshua Blank of the Texas Politics Project at UT Austin described 'a real enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans' in this cycle.
The money tells the same story from the other side. Talarico raised more than $146 million through Oct. 14, according to Federal Election Commission reports, against Paxton's $22 million including his primary - but Elon Musk contributed $158 million to support Paxton's general-election effort, and Republicans from House Speaker Mike Johnson to the president have fanned out across the state. Trump, who won Texas with roughly 56 percent in 2024, rallied in San Antonio, Corpus Christi and Lubbock in October and first made the $5,000 promise at the party's Dallas midterm convention.
The ground Republicans are defending was built with Latino voters: Trump's 55 percent support among Texas Latinos in 2024 was a record for a Republican, up 13 points from 2020 and 27 from 2016, according to the Texas Politics Project. USA TODAY reported that support slipping now, with Democrats leading recent polling in the Rio Grande Valley's 34th, 15th and 28th congressional districts, and canvassers acknowledging the conversion work is unfinished. 'I'm kind of scared. I'm worried,' said Sylvia Cardenas, a Team Red organizer from Mission who voted on the second day of early voting. 'I'm worried with this election.'
