Election Tracker's Final Call for Texas Senate: Talarico by One Point, at 'Pure Toss-Up' Confidence
The forecaster gives the Democrat the narrowest possible win in a state Trump carried by nearly 14 - and then spends half its own report explaining why a decade of Texas polling says it could be wrong.
HOUSTON - One of the closing forecasts of the Texas Senate race landed Thursday, and it could not be narrower. Election Tracker Live's Final Call, published October 29, predicts Democrat James Talarico defeats Republican Ken Paxton by about one point - a Democratic pickup of the seat Sen. John Cornyn is leaving - at a confidence level the site itself labels 'pure toss-up.'
The numbers under the call lean Talarico's way, modestly. The 270toWin polling average has him ahead 49.6 to 46.7; of the six late polls the site verified, Talarico leads four, two are tied, and only the Republican-leaning InsiderAdvantage has Paxton ahead, by one. The three big race raters - Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections - all call the race a toss-up, Kalshi priced Talarico at about 66 percent on October 28, and the money gap is wide: Talarico reported $64 million in the third quarter to Paxton's $18 million including affiliated committees, in a race with reported ad spending above $500 million.
What makes the report worth reading is its other half. 'This is why we cut a 3-point average to 1,' the site writes: Texas polls have overstated Democrats for a decade, the state's Republican baseline is enormous - Donald Trump carried Texas by 13.7 points in 2024 and Ted Cruz by 8.5 the same year - the largest-sample Fox News poll has the race tied, Talarico lost about nine days in early October to the flu, and Libertarian Ted Brown's 1 to 3 percent likely breaks toward Paxton if it fades on Election Day. 'Any normal-sized Texas polling miss flips this call,' the site says.
For Houston, the site points election-night viewers at the same place this station has pointed them all month: turnout in the big metro counties, starting with Harris, against Paxton's margins in rural Texas. Most Texas polls close at 7 p.m. Central on Tuesday, early votes are typically reported first and lean Democratic this year, and an early Talarico lead may narrow as the night goes on. The forecast era ends Tuesday; the count begins.
