Cook Political Report Shifts 12 More House Races Toward Democrats, and Now Sees a Path to 240 Seats
A week after moving 19 races the same way, Cook moved a dozen more on Friday - three Republican seats into toss-up, two toss-ups into lean Democratic - and projects a Democratic majority of 227 to 240.
WASHINGTON - The Cook Political Report shifted 12 more House races toward Democrats on Friday, the forecaster's second move in that direction in a week, projecting a Democratic House majority of between 227 and 240 seats. The latest changes put more than 218 seats at 'lean Democrat' or better - the majority line - four days before Election Day. Democrats need to flip just three seats to regain control of the chamber; Cook now projects the party will flip between 12 and 25.
The moves reached into seats Republicans had treated as safe. Colorado's 5th District, held by Rep. Jeff Crank, Pennsylvania's 1st, held by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, and the open South Carolina 1st all moved from 'lean Republican' to 'toss up.' Pennsylvania's 8th and Ohio's 9th, held by Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, moved from 'toss up' to 'lean Democrat.' Florida's 7th and 9th districts and Indiana's 5th moved from 'likely Republican' to 'lean Republican,' and four more Republican-held seats - North Carolina's 5th and 9th, New Jersey's 2nd and Washington's 5th - moved from 'solid Republican' to 'likely Republican,' putting them on the battlefield map. Cook House editor Erin Covey noted that Rep. Rob Bresnahan of Pennsylvania has trailed in recent polling, with attacks over his stock trading taking a toll. Cook lists 18 House races as toss-ups in all.
The Senate picture in the same forecast matters most in Texas. Cook identifies seven Senate toss-ups - Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas - the list that makes Tuesday's Paxton-Talarico race one of the seven seats that will decide the chamber. A ratings shift is a forecaster's judgment, not a vote count, and Cook's own history is that 'lean' and 'likely' ratings are usually but not always right. What Friday's move records is the direction of the final week: every Cook adjustment this month has run one way, and the last one arrived four days before the votes are counted.
