Cook Political Report Moves 19 House Races Toward Democrats, Texas Seat Included
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted 19 House races toward Democrats on Friday — six of them out of the toss-up column — and now favors Democrats in 220 seats, with four Texas districts moving in the same update.
The Cook Political Report moved another 19 U.S. House races in Democrats' direction on Friday, October 23, citing new polling and ad spending less than two weeks before the November 3 midterm elections. Six districts moved from the toss-up column to Lean Democratic, and two open seats moved from Lean Republican to toss-up. In its own summary, Cook wrote that Republicans' path to keeping control of the House has "all but evaporated," and that the outstanding question is how large a Democratic majority in 2027 will be.
After the changes, Democrats are favored in 220 seats rated Solid, Likely or Lean Democratic — two more than the 218 needed to control the House — while Republicans are favored in 198 seats and 17 races remain pure toss-ups, according to Cook. The forecaster's likeliest outcome is a Democratic gain of between 12 and 22 seats; Democrats currently hold 215. Four of the six seats that moved to Lean Democratic are held by Republican incumbents — Reps. Juan Ciscomani of Arizona, Gabe Evans of Colorado, Jen Kiggans of Virginia and Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin — alongside seats in North Carolina and Texas.
Texas moved in four places in the same update. The state's 34th District, held by Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez Jr., moved from toss-up to Lean Democratic; the 23rd District moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican; the 35th moved from Lean Republican to toss-up; and the 28th moved from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic, according to Cook's ratings as reported Friday. For Houston readers, the ratings land in the middle of a record local turnout run: Harris County has already cast 384,304 in-person early ballots through Thursday, after a record 104,600-ballot first day, and the county's results are watched statewide as a bellwether.
Cook's ratings are projections, not results, and they can move again in the final days. Early voting in Texas runs through Friday, October 30, and any registered Harris County voter can vote at any vote center in the county during that period. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
