October Jobs Report: U.S. Adds 165,000 Jobs, Nearly Triple the Forecast, and Unemployment Falls to 4.1 Percent
The first big economic number since the midterms beat every expectation: employers added 165,000 jobs in October against a forecast of 65,000, September was revised sharply upward, and unemployment ticked down to 4.1 percent - even as long-term unemployment climbed to 2 million.
The U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday morning, nearly triple the 65,000 gain economists polled by Reuters had forecast and the strongest headline reading in months. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent in September. The report, released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, is the first major economic reading since Tuesday's midterm elections - an election voters decided largely on the cost of living - and it showed a labor market sturdier than the campaign season suggested: September's hiring was revised up to 60,000 jobs from the 29,000 first reported, and August's was revised up to 186,000.
The October gains were broad. Professional and business services added 70,000 jobs - against a 12-month average of just 15,000 a month - healthcare added 42,000, transportation and warehousing 25,000, and manufacturing 19,000. Private-sector payrolls rose 159,000 of the 165,000 total, against an average monthly gain of 48,000 over the prior year. The private ADP report on Wednesday had pointed the same direction, counting 86,000 added jobs. Average hourly earnings rose 14 cents to $38.00, up 3.1 percent over the year, and labor force participation inched up to 61.9 percent. The number of unemployed people, 7.1 million, was little changed, and the unemployment rate has now held in a narrow 4.1 to 4.3 percent range since March.
The harder numbers sit underneath the headline. Americans out of work for 27 weeks or more - the long-term unemployed - reached about 2 million in October, up from about 1.1 million in 2023, and pay growth of 3.1 percent has not clearly outrun the inflation that drove the election. For the Federal Reserve, a resilient jobs market cuts both ways: Reuters reported Treasury yields moving higher on the release, and most forecasters now expect the Fed to raise its benchmark rate by a quarter-point in December to keep pressure on prices, according to CME FedWatch pricing reported by USA TODAY. The next test of whether October's surge is durable is the November report, due in early December.
